Why people aren’t buying heat pumps—and what states can do about it

To achieve ambitious decarbonization targets, states need more people to install heat pumps—about 4.5 million more units over the next three years.

Today, just 16% of homes use heat pumps. Heat pump usage is most common in the Southeast, where winters tend to be milder. This leaves huge swaths of the U.S. in need of smart promotion strategies, especially states in the Upper Midwest, which have the fewest heat pumps installed. Thankfully, Inflation Reduction Act tax credits and rebates are coming to help families decarbonize their homes.

But new research from the coldest part of the country reveals a critical gap that states need to close first: Most people don’t know what heat pumps are.

Earlier this year, we worked with a Minnesota group to figure out what Midwestern states can do to get people to buy heat pumps.

We found that while rebate messaging increases interest in heat pumps across customer segments, simple messaging that raises awareness about heat pumps will be essential to boosting sales. Rebates alone won’t convince people who don’t know what they’re being asked to buy.

Customer Research and Message Testing in Minnesota

This summer, the Minnesota Air Source Heat Pump Collaborative found that the majority of Upper Midwestern homeowners are unaware of heat pumps. More than three-quarters knew little to nothing about them. Low-income homeowners were even less likely to be aware; 8 in 10 knew little to nothing about heat pumps.

Our team helped design a study to identify customer segments in the Minnesota market and to test promotional messaging informed by behavioral science. We spoke with 30 Minnesotans about their views on heat pumps in focus groups. None of the participants had heat pumps. Distinct barriers and motivations emerged as to why.

For example, one customer segment was razor-focused on costs, while others were interested in different quality-of-life benefits that HVAC systems can offer.

Then, we wrote targeted messages to address these factors and tested them in an online experiment with people from across the Upper Midwest. The additional messaging didn’t have a strong effect on the likelihood of participants considering buying a heat pump.

That is, a basic explanation of what a heat pump is and how efficient it can be was as motivating as a message highlighting their dependability or superior comfort they provide. This held true across customer segments, suggesting that simply providing information about heat pumps to receptive audiences may be more critical than landing on the perfect wording at this point.

Heat Pump Messaging Solutions

Given this finding, what messages should Upper Midwestern states spread in addition to basic explanations about heat pumps?

Messages related to costs tested very well. This included rebate messaging, as well as energy efficiency statements. The message, “Heat pumps are 2-4x more efficient than other heating and cooling systems,” boosted interest in heat pumps the most.

States can use messages that signal social proof and shift social norms around heat pumps as well. Social norms are the informal rules that govern behavior. People tend to follow what they think the norm is.

Messaging demonstrating that heat pumps are popular, or becoming more popular, may encourage adoption. Our research found that friends and family were the most trusted sources of information about home heating. Future programs could seek to leverage converted customers as messengers within their communities.

Imagery is also essential. States should use photos of heat pumps in communications, rather than illustrations or lifestyle shots. Residents need to know what heat pump products look like in order to envision them heating and cooling their own homes.

In the short term, states should focus on delivering these messages, along with general information about heat pumps, frequently to a broad population. We found that all customer segments had similar messaging preferences.

This suggests that targeted messaging may not pay off right now—people don’t have strong knowledge or opinions about heat pumps to leverage. What matters is raising awareness about heat pumps to as many people as possible.

However, states should think twice before using environmental messaging. An eco-conscious customer segment emerged in our research who said their chief concerns were their energy consumption and carbon footprint. But within this group, only 5% considered carbon emissions to be the most important factor in their home heating decisions. Environmental messaging was not effective.

Amplify Resident Voices

To drive heat pump adoption, Upper Midwestern states should clearly prioritize raising awareness. But our findings suggest that tapping into trusted sources of information—friends and family—can be pivotal. Community-driven reassurance is key, especially in the coldest states, where there may be skepticism about heat pump performance in freezing temperatures.

States can leverage trusted messengers by thinking outside of typical policy design to amplify resident voices and experiences. This could look like offering referral incentive programs, profiling local families with heat pumps or hiring community representatives. Building grassroots momentum will help knowledge and financial incentives around heat pumps spread organically, empowering more people to make informed, confident decisions about uptake.

Anna Keleher is a senior advisor at The Behavioral Insights Team Americas. Maddie Hansen-Connell is senior manager of market transformation evaluation at the Center for Energy and Environment. Lila Tublin and Sheena Mirpuri of The Behavioral Insights Team and Emily McPherson and Rabi Vandergon of the Center for Energy and Environment contributed to this commentary.