How Many Americans Believe in Climate Change? Probably More Than You Think

It would be easy to assume that all Hoosiers largely doubt climate change and humans’ contribution to it.

It would be easy to assume that all Hoosiers largely doubt climate change and humans’ contribution to it. Shutterstock

COMMENTARY | In a recent statewide survey of Indiana residents, most supported taking action on climate change. But most Hoosiers underestimate just how widespread this view is in their state.

Indiana certainly doesn’t look like a state that’s ready to confront climate change. Its former governor, Vice President Mike Pence, has questioned whether human actions affect the climate. In 2016 the majority of Indiana residents voted for Donald Trump, who rejects mainstream climate science. And the state ranks first in the proportion of its population that identifies as conservative – a position that generally means resisting calls to address climate change.

Given these realities, it would be easy to assume that all Hoosiers largely doubt climate change and humans’ contribution to it. The truth is surprising.

My research focuses on the human dimensions of climate change, including public opinion. In a recent statewide survey, I found that the majority of Indiana residents supported taking action on climate change. However, most Hoosiers underestimate just how widespread this view is in their state.

Evolving Perspectives

To explore climate change views, my colleagues and I commissioned an online survey of 1,002 Indiana residents statewide in April 2019. The most reported political affiliation was Republican (28%), though there was a wide diversity of affiliations across the sample. A slight majority were men (52%) and the largest age category was 25-34 (20%).

I found that, overall, Hoosiers believed that climate change was real and was happening. Around 80% of respondents reported believing that climate change was occurring “somewhat” or “to a great extent.”

Similarly, a majority felt that climate change will harm Indiana’s economy “somewhat” or to a “great extent” (77%) and that climate change was “already” causing harm in the United States or would by 2030 (72%). Over 65% “somewhat” or “strongly agreed” that climate change effects are greater now than five years ago, and 75% supported initiatives to address these impacts in Indiana.

In the United States, the public’s view of climate change often divides along party lines, and respondents in my survey were no exception. Those identifying with more conservative parties reported lower levels of belief in and support for action on climate change across the board.

Still, a majority of Republicans – 66% – believed climate change is real, compared to 91% of Democrats, and supported initiatives to address it. A slight majority of Republicans reported that their acceptance of the reality of climate change had strengthened over the last five years. The fact that these attitudes were held by a majority of respondents of all political affiliations was our most surprising finding.

Understanding Climate Change Consensus

If citizens keep their support for acting on climate change to themselves, society struggles to build consensus. But relatives and friends can influence individuals’ attitudes on climate.

Research shows that people’s willingness to change their beliefs or attitudes depends to a great extent on what they already perceive as normal. Therefore, I next examined whether Hoosiers correctly perceived the existence of widespread support for climate change in their state. My survey asked, “What percentage of other Indiana residents do you think believe climate change is happening (whether caused by human activity or not)?”

On average, respondents underestimated by about 24% how many Hoosiers accept climate change. Doubters thought that most others shared their skepticism, estimating that only around 43% in Indiana held the opposite opinion.

Surveyed Hoosiers who believed climate change is happening perceived that a higher percentage of Hoosiers felt like them. However, they too underestimated the percentage who accepted the reality of climate change’s occurrence, by around 20 points on average.

Such misperceptions hinder action on climate change. Previous research has shown skeptics can fall prey to a “false consensus effect” – the tendency to assume one’s own opinion is held by a majority of others. For example, climate skeptics who falsely assume that most others share their opinion are less likely to change their minds. But if they recognize that a consensus exists on the issue and is different from their own initial belief, that could encourage more conservatives to believe in climate change.

In the same way, believers who underestimate just how many actually agree with them are more likely to self-silence for fear of being stigmatized. They may avoid calling their political representatives to urge support of climate change policies. Researchers have identified such “pluralistic ignorance” in studies of college students and social norms around alcohol use.

Capitalizing on Consensus, Fighting Misperceptions

Even in a state as conservative as Indiana, belief that climate change is occurring and support for action to curb it are now mainstream.

Our survey did not ask more controversial questions, such as whether humans had a role in causing climate change or how to reduce emissions. While I expect that many in the state remain divided on these issues, I still find my results encouraging.

Perhaps one sign of quietly changing attitudes in Indiana is South Bend Mayor and presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg’s rise in national polls, due in part to his climate change agenda, which Buttigieg has linked to broader action to revive rural America.

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has made climate change part of his agenda in campaigning for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Mary Schwalm/AP

Addressing climate change will require major societal changes, which in turn will require overcoming barriers that discourage or prevent collective action. Hoosiers’ underestimation of local consensus on climate change is likely one such barrier in Indiana.

Our respondents are not alone in misperceiving how many of their peers hold supportive attitudes. Many people nationwide underestimate consensus on this issue. One way to overcome this tendency may be to focus on communicating the commonness or the growing belief in climate change.

I also see it as critical for individuals who believe climate change is occurring to discuss the topic with friends and relatives, especially if these loved ones are doubters. Helping people to recognize just how normal it is to believe in climate change could lead to broader calls for action in Indiana and beyond.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Matthew Houser is an assistant research scientist and faculty fellow at Indiana University.

NEXT STORY: New Jersey Reconsiders Corporate Tax Incentives

New Jersey Reconsiders Corporate Tax Incentives

A view of Jersey City's skyline.

A view of Jersey City's skyline. Steve Pavone/Shutterstock

STATE AND LOCAL ROUNDUP | Massachusetts sees support for ranked choice voting … Half of Wisconsin residents haven’t heard of state legislative leaders … California repeals law that requires residents to help police officers.

New Jersey leaders will re-examine tax incentives for businesses after Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey vetoed a bill last month that would have extended the life of two corporate incentive programs. Murphy wants to cap the amount a company can accept in tax incentives at $400 million and only allow companies to sell their incentive once. The old tax programs did not impose such a cap and credits could be transferred an unlimited number of times. “For the past six years, New Jersey has operated under a severely flawed tax incentive program that wasted taxpayer money on handouts to connected companies instead of creating jobs and economic growth. The program I’ve outlined in the conditional veto is one that creates good jobs and works for everyone, not just the connected few,” Murphy said. The tax incentive system has come under fire in recent years for a variety of controversies; one investigation revealed that $1.1 billion of the $1.6 billion of tax breaks awarded to companies in Camden were tied to George Norcross, a Democratic powerbroker whose brother crafted the tax incentive legislation and who led a law firm that represented many of the companies that received tax breaks. (Norcross has defended the tax program and his involvement.) Sue Altman, New Jersey state director for Working Families, an organization that supported tax incentive reform, said that she was pleased to see Murphy stand up to members of his own party. “Right from the beginning, [Murphy] really didn’t play into the hands of party bosses. A lot of people in Trenton are secretly applauding Murphy for standing up to George [Norcross],” she said. Not all are pleased with the veto, though, including New Jersey Citizen Action, a group whose members say the public should have more input in creating the new tax incentive program. “These programs combined awarded $11 billion to New Jersey corporations for more than a decade for woefully insufficient returns, costing the state a whopping $1 billion this year alone...Now, the Legislature has called for more legislative hearings to hear from invited guests only on these programs. These hearings once again have  shut out the public and a wide range of experts who must be allowed to participate in this vital process,” a statement from the group reads. [American Prospect; North Jersey.com; Insider New Jersey]

RANKED CHOICE VOTING | Twelve initiative petitions were approved by the Massachusetts Attorney General this week. One of the initiatives will have voters consider ranked choice voting, a system in which voters could rank their candidates in order of preference. If no candidate in an election wins more than 50% of the vote, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes would have their votes divided amongst other candidates based on voters’ next highest choices until one candidate reaches a majority threshold. In 2016, voters in Maine approved an initiative to enact ranked choice voting in the elections for governor, state legislature, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House, making it the first state to do so. If approved by Massachusetts voters, the initiative would implement the system in 2022 for "primary and general elections for all Massachusetts statewide offices, state legislative offices, federal congressional offices, and certain other offices.” Organizers of the petition now have three months to gather signatures from more than 80,000 voters, after which the legislature can consider the issue; the idea is rejected by lawmakers, supporters can gather additional signatures to place the item on the 2020 ballot. The proposal already has support from at least 80 lawmakers, according to Mac D’Alessandro, state director of Voter Choice Massachusetts. "Massachusetts voters want a stronger voice when we cast our ballots and it’s just common sense to make sure that our elected leaders are supported by a true majority. We’re excited to bring more voice and more choice into our elections by creating this new option for voters,” he said. [WBUR; New England Public Radio; New England Daily News]

POLITICAL AWARENESS | A new study from Marquette University revealed that half of registered voters in Wisconsin don’t recognize the two most powerful legislators in the state. The poll showed that 49% of voters hadn’t heard of Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald and 52% of voters didn’t know Assembly Speaker Robin Vos. Poll director Charles Franklen said that the Republicans only represent about 5% of the state’s population. "[This is] such a testament of how little attention people pay or are informed about what goes on in the state Capitol," he said. Vos did not seem concerned about the results, though. "I'm more than happy to be in the background getting things done for conservatives and making sure Governor (Tony) Evers doesn't screw up our state by enacting any of his very liberal agenda!" he tweeted. Evers, a Democrat, had a 54% approval rating in the poll, higher than former Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican, ever achieved. [Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

HELPING POLICE | California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a bill this week striking down a law from 1872 that makes it a crime for any “able-bodied person 18 years of age or older” to refuse a police officer’s request for help. The law was originally intended to force residents to assist law enforcement in looking for runaway slaves, but was cited as precedent as recently as 2014. State Sen. Bob Hertzberg wrote the new repeal law, saying the previous one was “a vestige of a bygone era” that subjected Californians to “an untenable moral dilemma,” and thanked his staff for bringing the issue to his attention. "Thank you to my interns for finding a law that belongs in the history books, not the law books," he said. The bill was opposed by the California State Sheriff’s Association. “There are situations in which a peace officer might look to private persons for assistance in matters of emergency or risks to public safety and we are unconvinced that this statute should be repealed,” the group said. [Sacramento Bee; The Hill; CNN]

MAYORAL DUTIES | New York Mayor Bill de Blasio is being criticized for his schedule and perceived inattention to mayoral duties. Residents of New York have been critical of de Blasio for the way he has balanced his run for president with his job in New York, which pays him $260,000 per year and lets him stay rent free at a mayor’s residence. Criticism arose this week because it was revealed that de Blasio had spent only 11 hours at City Hall during the entire month of May. “When someone has an office and they run for another office you’re going to put time into your campaign while doing your current office. That’s what I’ve been doing. You just make choices,” de Blasio said at a news conference. He insisted that he had taken the same number of meetings as usual, just in places other than City Hall. But some city councilors say that appearances matter. “It’s hard to show leadership in New York City when you’re hiking in the mountains of Nevada,” City Councilman Mark Treyger said, referencing a recent trip the mayor took. [CBS New York]

Emma Coleman is the assistant editor for Route Fifty.

NEXT STORY: States Should Look to Nurse Practitioners to Fight Against Opioid Epidemic

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