The New Hampshire governor's decision not to run leaves 2024 field wide open

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It’s Saturday, July 22, and we’d like to welcome you to the weekly State and Local Roundup. Just about everywhere saw scorching hot temperatures this week, and the news stayed hot too. There is plenty to keep tabs on, including Illinois getting the nod to eliminate cash bail, the feds saying they will seek to take over Rikers in New York, the Census Bureau receiving nearly 200 requests for corrections to its count, and Michigan being introduced to Gov. Barbie. But first we’ll start in New Hampshire. 

Republican Gov. Chris Sununu announced Wednesday that he would not seek a fifth two-year term in 2024. “This was no easy decision as I truly love serving as governor,” Sununu said in his announcement. “Public service should never be a career, and the time is right for another Republican to lead our great state.”

His decision immediately raised the prospects of a fierce contest to take his place. Democrats consistently win statewide races for federal office in the Granite State, but Republicans currently control both houses of the legislature and the governorship.

Jessica Taylor, an analyst with the Cook Political Report, said Sununu’s pending retirement changes the forecast for the race from “solid Republican” to “toss-up.” New Hampshire, she wrote, “gives Democrats their best pickup opportunity on the 2024 gubernatorial board.”

That said, Taylor told NH Journal that the 2024 gubernatorial election cycle so far is “pretty sleepy.”

There are 11 governorships at play in next year’s elections. Democrats in Delaware, North Carolina and Washington will leave vacancies, while Republicans will be leaving openings in Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia. Republicans Greg Gianforte of Montana and Phil Scott of Vermont could opt to run for another term, while Spencer Cox of Utah already announced he is running again.

The biggest fight in that mix, before Sununu announced his retirement, is the contest to succeed Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina. The state has long been politically competitive, and Cooper now finds himself clashing with new Republican supermajorities in the legislature. Josh Stein, the Democratic attorney general, is running to succeed Cooper. On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson appears to be the favorite, but a history of controversial statements could haunt him in a general election.

The Cook Political Report rates the contest as “lean Democratic,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics lists it as a “tossup.”

Another potential wild card is in Vermont, where Scott has cruised to reelection against Democrats in the famously liberal state. (He beat his opponent last year by nearly 50 percentage points.) As a liberal Republican in a Northeast state, though, Scott appears to be part of a vanishing breed of politician. Moderate GOP governors Larry Hogan of Maryland and Charlie Baker of Massachusetts both recently left office with plenty of public support, but Democrats replaced both of them. 

Scott seems uniquely poised to hold onto the Vermont governorship, Taylor told NH Journal. “If Scott does not run again, that becomes the Democrats’ best pickup opportunity,” she said. “In a place like Vermont, it’s very hard to find another Phil Scott, obviously.”

Before we return to the race in New Hampshire, there are gubernatorial elections happening this year in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi.

Gov. Andy Beshear in Kentucky will try to keep the office in Democratic hands. Beshear, the son of a previous governor, has touted the strong economic climate in Kentucky as he runs for reelection. He faces Daniel Cameron, the state’s first Black attorney general and a former aide to U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, in the general election. Beshear is widely seen as having the advantage, but his chief liability is being a Democrat in a state that otherwise heavily favors Republicans.

Meanwhile, Louisiana appears poised to elect a Republican. Gov. John Bel Edwards, the only Democratic governor in the Deep South, cannot run again, opening up a chance for Republicans to take control of the executive branch there. Edwards endorsed Shawn Wilson, the former secretary of the state Department of Transportation and Development. But Wilson will likely face more well-known figures in the state, either the Republican state attorney general or treasurer. The primary election is Oct. 14.

Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves would normally have a clear path for reelection as a Republican in a deeply red state, but he has been dogged by the fallout of a welfare scandal, the Jackson water crisis and a new law Reeves signed to expand the role of state police in the largely Black capital city.

Back in New Hampshire, Sununu held on to the governorship, even as New Hampshire voters supported Democratic presidential candidates and elected Democrats to the U.S. Senate. He comes from a political dynasty of sorts, with his father serving as governor in the 1980s and his brother winning elections to both the U.S. House and Senate.

But the governor has become increasingly frustrated with the influence of former President Donald Trump on national politics and vowed to support any Republican presidential candidate who opposes him. Sununu will still be in office when New Hampshire holds its first-in-the-nation primary for the 2024 presidential race.

“I’m gonna be an aggressive proponent of everybody else [besides Trump] and a proponent of the Republican Party. Donald Trump does not represent the Republican Party. He might be our nominee, but he doesn’t represent the future. He’s yesterday’s news,” Sununu told The Associated Press.

Sununu earlier turned down opportunities to run for president and the U.S. Senate himself.

Two Democrats are already running for the governorship: Cinde Warmington, a member of the state’s executive council, and Joyce Craig, the mayor of Manchester.

The Republican side is less settled. Chuck Morse, a former president of the New Hampshire Senate, immediately announced he would run to replace Sununu. Kelly Ayotte, a former U.S. senator, is among the other potential candidates who might also join the race.

Keep reading as there’s more news to use below, and make sure to come back here for the week’s highlights. If you don’t already and would prefer to get it in your inbox, you can subscribe to this newsletter here. We’ll see you next week.

News to Use

Trends, Common Challenges, Cool Ideas, FYIs, and Notable Events

• Alabama lawmakers defy courts on congressional map. The Alabama Legislature has approved a new congressional map that does not contain a second majority Black district as ordered by a federal court. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in June that Alabama’s current congressional maps violate the Voting Rights Act. The map now goes to Gov. Kay Ivey and after that back to a lower court for review. If it is not approved, the court can order a third party, commonly referred to as a special master, to draw the maps instead.


• Cash bail is out in Illinois. The Illinois Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that cash bail is not required by the state constitution, clearing the way for the state to become the first in the nation to eliminate cash bail for criminal defendants awaiting trial. The 5-2 decision was split along party lines, with the two Republican justices dissenting. The justices gave trial courts 60 days to prepare for the new rules, with cash bail to be eliminated Sept. 18. The court’s long-awaited ruling represents a victory for Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who faced fierce criticism over the policy from Republicans during his reelection campaign last year, including a barrage of sometimes misleading claims in TV ads and political mailers. The ruling also comes amid a nationwide political backlash to bail reform efforts.


• Feds call for a takeover of Rikers. Eight years after entering into a historic agreement with New York City to force reforms at Rikers Island, the federal government has effectively declared the multimillion effort a failure. Damian Williams, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said Monday that he will ask a judge for a federal takeover of the local jail. If approved, a federal receiver could wrest decision-making powers from Mayor Eric Adams’ administration and possibly scrap union agreements and other long-standing work rules. The announcement comes two days after the death of William Johnstone, the 25th person to die either in city custody or shortly after being released since Adams came into office last year.


• Another one bites the dust. Texas withdraws from ERIC. The Texas secretary of state submitted its exit notice Thursday to the Electronic Registration Information Center, a national coalition widely recognized as one of the best tools to combat voter fraud. A new state law directs the secretary of state to build its own version of a multistate verification program or to find a “private sector provider” with a cost that won’t exceed $100,000. Eight other Republican-led states have left ERIC since 2022: Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Iowa and Virginia.


• News reports prompt outrage over migrant policies. In New York City, the National Guard and federal authorities are refusing to carry out Adams’ plan to discourage migrants from coming to the city, the New York Post reported Friday. Adams sought to distribute flyers at the border and at migrant sites in the Big Apple telling asylum seekers to “consider another city.” In Texas, the Houston Chronicle uncovered an email from a Department of Public Safety trooper detailing harsh treatment toward migrants. Officers working for Gov. Greg Abbott’s border security initiative were ordered to push small children and nursing babies back into the Rio Grande, and have been told not to give water to asylum seekers even in extreme heat. Abbott denied the allegations, but the Justice Department has launched an investigation. And on Monday, migrant workers and advocates filed a federal lawsuit challenging part of a new Florida law that makes it a felony to transport into the state people who enter the country illegally. They say the law is vague and will lead to “unlawful arrest, prosecution and harassment.”


• Despite record heat, Nevada withdraws from the climate alliance. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo decided to withdraw Nevada from the bipartisan U.S. Climate Alliance. The climate coalition includes more than 24 governors committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with policies outlined by the Paris Climate Agreement. Nevada joined the alliance in 2019 under Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak. In a letter dated July 5 announcing Nevada's withdrawal, Lombardo stated that the alliance's goals were “ambitious and well-intentioned” but they “conflict with Nevada’s energy policy objectives.” Those objectives, outlined in an executive order the governor signed earlier this year, include “developing and maintaining a diverse energy supply portfolio” while “utilizing a balanced approach to electric and natural gas energy supply and transportation fuels.”


• Nearly 200 requests for census corrections were filed by states and localities. Some of the biggest states in the country, along with dozens of municipalities, challenged the 2020 population counts that determine federal funding for the coming decade, The Associated Press reported. Their reasons included a misplaced naval ship in California, overlooked college students in New York City and missed inmates in Texas. 


• First week in office, new Denver mayor declares emergency. Mike Johnston declared a state of emergency on the issue of homelessness and housing insecurity in Denver on Tuesday. Johnston called homelessness "the most significant issue the city faces right now" and "a human rights issue." The number of homeless is growing 12 times faster than the city’s population, and Denver has seen it grow 44% in the last five years. Johnston said he aims to house 1,000 people by the end of 2023. The emergency declaration, he said, will help the city gain access to resources from the state and potentially, the federal government. Similar declarations have been made in other cities, including Los Angeles; Portland, Oregon; and Seattle.


• Teacher pay in Houston to be based on performance. Teachers in the largest public school system in Texas will be paid based on test scores, according to a document that lays out state-appointed Superintendent Mike Miles’ plans for overhauling the Houston Independent School District. The current compensation model— where salaries rise over time as educators gain experience—ends at the end of the 2024-25 school year. After that, it will be replaced with a "pay-for-performance" system based largely on standardized test scores.


• How college towns are decimating the GOP. In state after state, fast-growing, traditionally liberal college counties like Dane in Wisconsin are flexing their muscles, generating higher turnout and ever greater Democratic margins. They’ve already played a pivotal role in turning several red states blue, according to Politico, and they could play an equally decisive role in key swing states next year. Of the 171 places designated as “college towns” by the American Communities Project, 38 have flipped from red to blue since the 2000 presidential election. Just seven flipped the other way, from blue to red, and typically by smaller margins.


• GOP centrists threaten hardline tactics to include SALT relief in tax bill. A small band of roughly 10 Republicans from New York, New Jersey and California is effectively blocking the House GOP’s tax plan from reaching the floor anytime soon as they seek relief for taxpayers back home who’ve been hit with heftier bills due to a Trump-era tax law that limited a deduction for state and local taxes. Top Republicans once hoped to bring their roughly $240 billion marquee tax plan to the floor before the August recess. It’s among the few pieces of major legislation that has a chance of making it to President Joe Biden’s desk this term.

Picture of the Week

Pink-loving Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer joined in on the Barbie mania this week ahead of the motion picture’s release with a series of social media posts featuring the iconic and controversial doll. Whitmer showed “Gov. Barbie'' at work around the Michigan capital. Earlier this week, the politician was profiled in The New Yorker. Whitmer handily won reelection last November, in part, by tying her candidacy to a state constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to abortion. She swept the suburbs so convincingly that the Democrats gained control of both houses of the Michigan Legislature for the first time in 40 years. Since then, according to the publication, Whitmer’s Democratic majority has allocated more than a billion dollars to support the auto industry’s green transition; quintupled a tax credit for poor families; repealed a law that made Michigan a right-to-work state; and enacted new protections for LGBTQ people.

Government in Number

10 years

The amount of time that has passed since Detroit filed for bankruptcy—the largest U.S. city to do so. Decades of financial mismanagement and population decline drove Detroit to the brink. Tuesday marked the anniversary of the filing, which was followed by months of negotiations, federal court hearings and an unlikely coming together of foundations to keep city-owned artwork from being sold to help pay off the debt. State officials took over the city's finances until the mayor and city council produced three straight balanced budgets. In Michigan, the state has an unusual amount of discretion in initiating oversight, and its emergency managers have an unusual amount of authority, according to ProPublica, which asks in a recent article if it is time to reconsider those powers. 

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