Move over, presidential race. These state governments also are up for grabs.

The Minnesota State Capitol in St. Paul, Minn. Minnesota is among the states that could see partisan legislative control change after November’s elections, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

The Minnesota State Capitol in St. Paul, Minn. Minnesota is among the states that could see partisan legislative control change after November’s elections, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. UCG/Contributor via Getty Images

 

Connecting state and local government leaders

Thousands of state lawmakers are on the ballot, and control of some statehouses hangs in the balance.

This story was originally published by Stateline.

The presidential race gets the hype, but the nearly 6,000 state legislative races across the country in November’s elections could reshape power dynamics in some states.

While Republicans are primed to maintain their national advantage in statehouse control, several legislative chambers could flip, said Ben Williams, associate director of elections and redistricting at the National Conference of State Legislatures.

The GOP currently controls 57 legislative chambers, while Democrats control 41 (Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is nonpartisan). But, with narrow majorities in some chambers, Williams is eyeing several where a different party could take over. And divided government in more legislatures could result in more moderate policymaking on a host of controversial issues.

Only one state — Pennsylvania — currently has a split legislature.

“If you are at a historic low for divided government nationwide, it’s a generally pretty safe bet to assume it’s going to go up,” Williams said. He laid out his predictions for the fall elections at the organization’s annual summit earlier this month.

He pointed to 10 competitive chambers to watch: the Arizona House, Arizona Senate, Michigan House, Minnesota House, New Hampshire House, New Hampshire Senate, Pennsylvania House, Pennsylvania Senate, Wisconsin House and the Wisconsin Senate.

Only three governor’s races — in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Washington — are characterized as competitive by the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes state and federal races.

Voter Concerns

Nationally, the issues of inflation, abortion, immigration and foreign policy are at the forefront for voters, Williams said. But voters often have different concerns in state elections.

“Just because you see these national trends does not mean that that always reflects down to the state level,” he said. “There are local dynamics that are always at play that can make a difference.”

Republicans and Democrats are working to break apart trifectas (when a single party controls both chambers of the legislature and the governor’s office) or veto-proof majorities in several states.

That’s true in Kansas, where Republicans hold veto-proof majorities in both chambers.

In the state Senate, Democrats would need to flip three seats to break the supermajority of Republicans, who currently holds 29 of the chamber’s 40 seats. Erasing a veto-proof majority would give more policymaking influence to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, said state Sen. Dinah Sykes, the state Senate minority leader.

If Democrats weren’t facing veto-proof majorities, Sykes said the state’s recent $2 billion tax cut probably would have been more favorable to low-income earners. And breaking supermajorities would give the governor a better shot at getting a vote on Medicaid expansion — a long-standing Democratic priority. Kansas is among the 10 states not to have expanded the safety net program.

“I don’t think by any means it’s going to be super-progressive, but I think we can get kind of more middle of the road, which is what Kansans actually like,” she said.

Divided Government

For Republicans, winning one or both chambers in Maine would force more compromise from Democrats, said state Rep. Billy Bob Faulkingham, a Republican and the House minority leader.

With a trifecta, Maine Democrats have been able to circumvent GOP lawmakers, Faulkingham said.

Last year, Democrats passed a two-year, nearly $10 billion budget in a legislative maneuver that one Republican described as the “tyranny of the majority.” The move allowed Democrats to pass the budget with a simple majority — rather than the two-thirds majority that is usually required.

Faulkingham said gaining control of even one chamber will result in more moderate policymaking.

“I think that all of a sudden, you would see people actually come to the table and negotiate, which you haven’t seen for the last six years,” he said. “If people are being honest, probably the best form of government is a divided government.”

If the elections turn out to be a red wave, with Republicans making significant gains across the board, NCSL expects the Democratic-controlled House and Senate chambers in Delaware, Maine, Nevada and Oregon to be in play.

Conversely, if Democrats do well nationally, the GOP-controlled chambers in Alaska and Georgia could be competitive.

“These states are not as red as some might believe,” Williams told Stateline in an interview. “In Alaska’s House, the Republicans have a bare majority in each chamber. And in Georgia, Democrats only need to flip around 10 seats. So, it’s not an insurmountable task.”

The Alaska legislature is governed by bipartisan majority coalitions, even though voters send more Republicans to Juneau.

State Sen. Gary Stevens, a Republican who leads the Senate majority, said he doesn’t expect November’s election results to disrupt the majority coalition, even if Democrats or more conservative Republicans pick up seats.

Alaska has the nation’s smallest state Senate, with 20 members. The 17-member Senate majority currently shares power between parties and is largely focused on more moderate issues, Stevens said.

“It means we can’t deal with extreme issues — either far left or far right,” he said. “It simply means that we need to concentrate on those things in the middle that need to be done.”

After years of planning, Minnesota Democrats seized the trifecta in 2022, when they flipped the Senate and maintained control of the House and governorship.

Since then, the legislature has approved bills that guarantee the right to abortion, provide free meals for kids at school, restore voting rights to felons released from prison and make the state a “trans refuge” for children seeking gender-affirming care. Those were all signed into law by Gov. Tim Walz, who is now Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate in the presidential election.

Those were hard-won progressive achievements, Democratic state Rep. Leigh Finke said. With only a one-seat advantage in the Senate, policy negotiations were fierce, as the majority worked to get all of their fellow Democrats on board.

“It may seem frustrating at times, but I think it really made our policy better because we knew we were going to have to fight for it,” she said.

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.